What makes pipeline more predictable

Forecasting has never been an exact science in agencies. But it’s starting to feel less predictable than it used to.

Part of that is down to the wider context. Budgets are under more scrutiny, and in some cases, the role of agencies is being questioned more directly. I’ve heard clients say, “We’ve all been given Claude licences now, so we’re stopping agency spend.”

Whether that plays out fully or not is almost beside the point. It reflects a shift in how clients are thinking. The expectation is changing, and so is the level of challenge around the value of external support.

At the same time, most agencies aren’t operating in isolation within their clients. There’s usually a mix of partners involved, often across different teams, projects and stakeholders.

But in my experience, agencies rarely have a complete view of that landscape.

They know the work they’ve been asked to do. They might be aware of one or two other partners. But beyond that, visibility tends to drop away. They’re not clear on who else is involved, what they’re brought in for, how they’re perceived, where they’re strong or might be vulnerable. 

That creates a gap between what the agency delivers and what’s actually happening within the account. And over time, that gap becomes a real problem.

Without a view of the wider landscape, it becomes difficult to influence what comes next. Work arrives as briefs rather than something shaped earlier in the process. Opportunities appear, but they’re not always anticipated. This is where forecasting becomes even more uncertain.

I’ve seen agencies slowly lose ground on accounts without noticing. A new partner is introduced, or an existing one starts to expand their role. They bring a slightly different perspective, or a new capability, and gradually they become part of conversations that weren’t open before. 

They get access you never had. There’s a change in where decisions are made and who is involved. You’re not.

In my experience, the agencies that seem to navigate this better take a more deliberate approach. 

They spend more time building a picture of the client beyond the immediate work in front of them. Not just what they’ve been asked to deliver, but what else is happening around it. Which teams are active, where priorities are shifting, and where there may be gaps..

They also do account planning differently. Not as a task to be completed, but as something to be used. A way of identifying actions: what needs to happen next, who owns it, and how progress is tracked.

And they’re generally more comfortable with the commercial side of the relationship. Not in a way that feels forced or overly ‘salesy’. They’re clearer about where they can add value, and more willing to have that conversation. 

This is even more important when the nature of the work shifts. If an agency’s role is primarily defined by execution, by “getting stuff done”, there’s a natural ceiling on how much it can grow within an account. And that kind of work is becoming easier to question, compare, or replace.

Which brings things back to visibility. If you only see the work you’ve been given, you only see part of the opportunity. And if you’re not actively building a broader view of the account, it’s difficult to know what might come next, or where it might come from.

Forecasting, at that point, becomes less about analysis and more about guesswork. It’s not a great place to be.